Affordable Capacity: The definition of the Regional Jet Market.

28 Monday Oct 2013

Posted by theflyingengineer in General Aviation Interest, Manufacturer

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1000, 170, 175, 190, 195, 700, 900, Bombardier, C, CRJ, CS100, CS300, Embraer, Jet, market, Regional, Series, Shift, trend

Highlights: The death of the 70 seat regional jet market, shifting market trends, and what airlines seem to trend on: affordable capacity.

50 seat regional jets heralded a new way to travel. Comfort and speed were real reasons, and offering a jet to regional customers, as opposed to a turboprop aircraft, suddenly seemed very attractive. The Embraer ERJ 145, introduced in 1996, and the Bombardier CRJ 100/200, introduced in 1992, both extremely popular 50 seat airplanes, sold 708 airplanes and 935 airplanes, respectively.

Regional aviation only continued to grow, fuelled by more efficient jets that promised good operating economics. According to Bombardier’s study in 1998, there was a growing requirement for larger aircraft in the fleets of the world’s regional airlines. To keep up with the growth in mainline fleets, Bombardier felt that regional fleet must grow in both size and capacity. The company felt that if the regional fleet did not grown beyond 50 seats, the number of 50-seaters required to satisfy demand would quadruple.

Because of this growth, regional airplanes grew in capacity, to match demand. The CRJ 700, a 70 seat regional jet from Bombardier, was introduced in 2001, and the competing Embraer 170 was introduced to airline service in 2004. As airplanes grew in size, the operational costs per seat started to fall, further opening up regional aviation to larger airplanes while gradually declining the smaller regional jet market. The market shifted, and continues to shift towards larger sized regional jets.

The CRJ 100/200 is no longer in production. In 2008, the Embraer 145 had 733 firm orders, which slumped to 708 in 2009, and has remained at that figure, over 4 years till date. By 2011, all orders had been realised through deliveries. The 50 seat jet market effectively and statistically died many, many years ago.

The CRJ 700, when introduced, did exceedingly well. Between 2000 and 2010, the order book grew by 160%, to 344 firm orders. The Embraer 170, which had a late start, touched 194 firm orders in 2009. While these were fairly good figures, the market shift hadn’t stopped.

The Embraer 190, and the CRJ 900 have seen the greatest sales growth. The E-190, when introduced in 2005 with JetBlue, had 185 firm orders. This has seen a fairly steady, and unparalleled growth to 560 in 2013: a growth of 200%. The CRJ1000 was Bombardier’s answer to the E-190, but that entered service very late, almost 5 years later, in December 2010, but firm orders stand at only 70, as of July 2013. The CRJ1000 is not much of a competitor to the E-190; The longest range version of the jet, 1,622NM, falls short of the shortest range version of the E-190: E-190STD at 1800NM. The E-190AR has a range of 2400NM.

While there was such encouraging growth in sales of 100 seat airplanes, The CRJ700 stopped building orders after 2010. In fact, after 2010, 4 firm orders were lost, with the number lazily bouncing back to 347 in 2013. After 2009, The Embraer 170’s firm orders only reduced, and hasn’t recovered since. It’s not the manufacturer. It’s the market, and the 70 seat regional jet isn’t favoured anymore. As of Sep 2013, there is a backlog of only 6 E-170, of which 2 are for Japan Airlines and 4 for ETA Star Aviation, India.

The 78-88 (80) seat E-175 is the next-best received aircraft. Orders for the type are nowhere close to that of its longer, 100 seat E-190, and had stagnated for more than 1 year in the period after 2011, at the level of the dead-market E-170. A sudden surge in orders, of 65% to 315 in 2013, is thanks to Skywest, which placed a large enough order for the type. The 90 seat CRJ900, has 306 firm orders in 2013, and witnessed a 380% surge in orders between 2005 and 2007.

A 2000NM range airplane with the ability to carry 100 passengers has been the hottest selling cake. Add another 16 to 24 seats and the offering, the E-195, isn’t quite as attractive. Bombardier’s response to the E-195 is the 125 CS100, and the unique, hitherto unmatched offering is the 135-160 seat CS300.

Proof that the market is shifting away from 70 seat jets is the fact that Embraer, that has moved forward with its plans to re-engine, significantly re-engineer and update the E-Jets to a “Second generation” of E2 jets, has the E-195-E2, the E-190-E2, and the E-175-E2, but no plans at all for the E-170-E2.

The market needs higher capacity airplanes for greater flexibility, provided that it doesn’t come at the cost of economics and performance. With economically better performing or promising airplanes hitting the market, “affordable capacity” is the market demand.

And since the E-175-E2 is planned for a 2020 Entry into service (EIS): the last amongst all re-engined E-Jets, it’s a sign of the 80 seat regional jetliner’s grave being prepared, next.

*This section is part of a much bigger, comprehensive article on the C-Series by The Flying Engineer.

The shaping of Embraer’s Second Generation E-Jets: “E2”

21 Monday Oct 2013

Posted by theflyingengineer in General Aviation Interest, Manufacturer

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195X, A320, BELF, Bombardier, Break, C, Composite, E, E2, Embraer, Engine, Even, Factor, Gear, Jet, jetBlue, Load, Metal, Series, Turbofan, Wings

In this piece, we look into the significance of the E-Jets, particularly the 100 seat E-190, and the need for the Brazilian manufacturer’s launch of the upgraded, “Second generation” E-Jets.

The Embraer E-Jets: Making Regional Sense.

Bombardier stepped into the 70 seat jet space with the introduction of its CRJ700 into commercial operations in 2001, with Brit Air. 3 years later, Embraer introduced its 70 seat jet to commercial operations, with LOT Polish airlines. Till date, 192 Embraer E-170s have been sold, while the 70 seat CRJ700 has sold 347 airplanes.

One Embraer regional jet, that has been very well received, is the 100 seat Embraer 190, which, till date, has raked up 560 orders. No other Bombardier 70+ seat aircraft, including the C-Series has managed to touch those numbers, yet.

The Embraer 190 makes absolute sense. The typical single class cabin of the airplane accommodates 100 passengers comfortably. JetBlue, the largest operator of the E-190 with 59 aircraft, complements its Airbus A320 fleet of 129 aircraft. Jet Blue’s A320s are fitted with 150 seats.

Way back in 2003, when JetBlue had an all-Airbus A320 fleet and the cabins had 156 seats, the break-even load factor (BELF), as published by the airline, was around 72%, corresponding to 112 seats. To open up more routes which would have a demand less than this BELF, the 100 seat Embraer 190 was introduced in 2005. In the light of its reduced A320 seating, and spiralling fuel prices, the airline’s A320’s BELF has only gone up, further stressing the need for the Embraer 190.

Embraer acknowledges that a big advantage for E-Jet operators today is their ability to use the aircraft to “right-size” in lower-density markets.

But also acknowledged in 2010 was the realisation that if Airbus or Boeing re-engine their narrowbodies, and achieve better costs per trip, the advantage enjoyed by the E-Jets would disappear.

The upgrade saga

This left only two options for Embraer: Introduce a clean-sheet airplane that competes with Airbus and Boeing’s popular narrowbody families-A320 and 737-an idea that has played with Embraer since 2009; or do something to the existing offering to retain the regional jet family’s attractiveness to operators.

Late 2011, Embraer formally confirmed its decision to abandon the development of a competing airplane (which otherwise would have put 4 players in the coveted segment, including Bombardier with its C-Series), and instead focus on enhancing the value of the Embraer 170 and 190 families through a possible stretch and a definite re-engine, at an estimated program cost of US$1.7 billion. This was the outcome of Boeing announcing the delivery of the 737Max in 2017: a period too short for Embraer to both hold its grip on the market with its existing offering while developing a competing airliner. This also reflects the industry’s lower appetite for risk.

Embraer started working with E-Jet customers to define the performance goals and technical characteristics of the new aircraft family. One of the considerations was a composite airframe. Early 2012, Air Lease Corp advised Embraer to stretch the Embraer E-190 by 1 row (4 seats) and the E-195 by 2-3 rows (8-12 seats). The aim was to add capacity to compete with the CS100, while allowing for pricing flexibility in the light of much lower development costs associated with an airplane upgrade rather than a clean sheet design. Adding to this advantage is the huge customer base of Embarer’s E-Jets. A customer would prefer an upgrade “within the aircraft family” for near-seamless operational integration, rather than an all-new aircraft.

Embraer claims to be not just re-engining, but investing heavily to achieve the efficiency of a clean-sheet design. In January 2013, Embraer selected the Pratt and Whitney Geared Turbofan PW1000G series to power the second generation E170 and E190/E195 aircraft, which it calls the “E-Jet E2 family”. The wings will feature a higher aspect ratio, longer wingspan, and raked wing tips instead of winglets. The landing gear will be lengthened to accommodate the larger engines, and the flight deck will feature the Honeywell’s Primus Epic™ 2 advanced integrated avionics system with large landscape displays, advanced graphics capabilities, and Honeywell’s Next Generation Flight Management System (NGFMS). The new airplanes will be 100% fly-by-wire, unlike the in-production E-Jets.

Unlike the C-Series, the wings for the E-Jet E2 are all metal, as, according to Embraer, composites aren’t cost-effective for such-sized airplanes. Embarer’s late announcement of the selection of the geared turbofan actually stands in its favour: the airframer benefits from Pratt and Whitney’s work on the smaller PW1200G for the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ), and the larger, mature PW1500G for the C-Series, both of which engine families are almost identical to those being offered for the E-Jets.: The PW1700G for the E175-E2 and the larger PW1900G for the E190/195-E2.

The reason to select the Geared Turbofan is not just the gear in the fan, which optimises fan speeds for greater efficiencies. The significant thermal margins available can allow for future engine thrust upgrades, allowing for further aircraft upgrades with the same engine family.

Plane Facts & 4-cast

The E-175 E2 can seat 88 passengers in a single class, in a comfortable 31” seat pitch. The in-production E-175 can seat only 78 passengers, comfortably, and 88 with an undesirable 29” seat pitch.

The E-190-E2, which is poised to continue the legacy of the well-performing in production E-190, comfortably seats an additional 6 passengers in a uniform 31” seat pitch. The existing E-190 can seat 114 passengers, but with a compromised seating comfort. The fuel efficiencies of the E-190-E2 lend it more range than the E-190.

The E-195-E2 seats 132 passengers in a uniform 31” seat pitch. The In-production E-195 can seat no more than 124 passengers in high capacity, and 116 in single class (with 31% of the seats featuring a 32” pitch, and 69% featuring a 31” pitch). Sometime in 2009, Embraer had studied an aircraft of such capacity, dubbed the E-195X, which would have used the same engines as the E-195. The concept was eventually dropped in 2010 the light of degraded aircraft performance in the absence of a re-engine.

Owing to its poor sales and the drop in demand for 70 seat jets, the E-170 won’t be re-engined.

Embraer’s best bet is on the 106 seat E-190-E2, and hence is focusing all its energy in targeting an entry-into-service (EIS) of mid-2018. The E-195-E2 will follow in 2019, and the E175-E2 in 2020.

Embraer foresees a demand for 6,400 commercial jets with capacity of up to 130 seats, over the next 20 years. With more than 1,200 E-Jets orders, Embraer has achieved a 42% market share in its segment. While Embraer will aggressively compete with Bombardier’s CS100, its present and future E-Jet offering has, and will eclipse Bombardier’s present line up of the CRJ family: CRJ700, CRJ900 and the CRJ1000, all three now marketed with the NextGen suffixes. Embraer is poised to grab a large share of that forecasted market.

*This section builds on research for a comprehensive article on the C-Series by The Flying Engineer.

C-Series Program Update: One Month after the first flight

18 Friday Oct 2013

Posted by theflyingengineer in Manufacturer

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aircraft, Bombardier, C, Certification, Chief, CS100, CS300, Engineering, Flight, ground, Pilot, Progress, Series, Shimmy, Simulator, Stability, test, Vehicle, Vibration

Robert “Rob” Dewar, Vice President and General Manager, C-Series, Bombardier Commercial Program, gave a brief insight into the certification program of the C-Series, one month after it’s first flight on the 16th of September, 2013.

The C-Series is poised to usher in a new era for Bombardier, while posing as a market threat for popular Airbus and Boeing single aisle aircraft.

There have been a total of 3 test flights till date.

The landing gear and certification tests have been completed for the shimmy. Shimmy is an unstable lateral (yaw) vibration, typically in the range of 10 to 30Hz, which can lead to structural damage and/or collapse of the landing gear. Landing gear as seen on aircraft such as the Airbus A320 family, Boeing 737NG family and the C-Series, among others, are twin wheeled cantilevered, and such landing gears may experience shimmy stability problems at low speeds, and must be tested to validate the design of the landing gear against shimmy.

The ground vibration test of the aircraft is in progress. This testing is part of the plane’s certification program. Selected parts of the aircraft are excited with an external oscillatory force. By observing the aircraft’s response to these vibrations, engineers can model the aircraft’s transfer functions and determine the airplane’s in-flight stability.

These tests results will be compiled and will determine when the airplane takes to the skies for the fourth time, when the test flight envelope will be further opened up. The last three flights have witnessed the C-Series reaching an altitude of 25,000ft, landing gear extension and retraction cycles, tests of both high lift devices: the slats and flaps, and other in-flight manoeuvres.

The aircraft’s performance an handling closely matches the predicted flight model in the simulator. Bombardier is using a Engineering Flight Simulator (ESIM),built by CAE, from the last one year to test actual flight systems and system controllers when integrated in the aircraft, such as the slat-flap computer, fly-by-wire computer, landing gear computer, APU-simulator, brake computers, the PW1500G Engine FADECs (Full Authority Digital Engine Computer), and so forth. Using this ESIM, the flight test program can rely a lot on the simulator to do a lot of the system and integration tests while also preparing flight test crew for various flight test exercises. This builds the confidence of the crew in the aircraft, while also helping complete real flight test exercises with higher success rates and lower risks. System testing has entered the certification testing phase.

Bombardier find the structural test results, in the certification phase, very pleasing. Testing on the cabin management system as well as the environmental control system are in progress.

The CS100 Flight Test Vehicles (FTV) 2, 3, 4, and 5, as well as the first production aircraft are in very advanced stages of final assembly at Mirabel. The larger CS-300’s first major fuselage section is being transported, expected to arrive at the presently non-optimised-for-the-C-Series Mirabel facility.

Which is why the construction of a new 667,000 sq-ft plant, located close to its current facilities in the vicinity of the airport in Mirabel, Quebec, entirely dedicated to the assembly of the CSeries family of aircraft, is progressing well.

According to Charles “Chuck” Ellis, Chief Flight Test Pilot C-Series, emphasising on the need for so many flight test vehicles, “We say it’s (certification program) a one year program but within that one year we’ll probably be doing 5 years of work. We can take one year and 5 airplanes, or 5 airplanes and one year”

Now that the ESIM’s flight and system model has been verified, it will making the certification easier and faster by offering a lot of flexibility and bandwidth in the C-Series certification program, as it is almost like having a 6th airplane in the fleet.